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Market Sizing Methodology

Reproducible TAM / SAM / SOM for SHIELD/ATLAS. Re-baselined 2026-06-11 against FY26–FY27 federal budget publications. Canonical source: docs/canonical/01_market_sizing_methodology.md · Live data: GET /api/company/market-sizing

TAM — annual US
$60–95B
Total addressable across DoD mission software, federal EM, state/local, Guard DSCA
SAM — annual US
$8–15B
SDVOSB + unclassified dual-use obtainable market
SOM — 5-year ISS revenue
$15–40M
Conservative company capture (not market size)

Step 1 — TAM segments

SegmentAnnual (point)RangeFormula

Step 2 — SAM formula

SAM = (SDVOSB_FY25 × domain_relevance) + (state_local_TAM × obtainable_share) × overlap_discount

SDVOSB FY2025 prime awards: $28.6B (DoD $12.8B · DHS $2.1B). Domain relevance filter ~50% for C2/EM/intel software NAICS.

Step 3 — SOM scenarios (company revenue)

Scenario5-year rangeTriggers

Budget signals (context)

SignalFY amountSource

Replication

  1. Pull FY26 DoD IT/CA ($66.1B) from OSD Tab A PDF.
  2. Apply 50–65% mission-relevant filter → Segment A ($33–43B).
  3. FEMA FY26 gross BA × modernization share → Segment B ($8–12B).
  4. US incident/EM market × software slice → Segment C ($15–25B).
  5. 54 Guard units × $55–90M license → Segment D ($3–5B).
  6. Sum with overlap haircut → TAM $60–95B.
  7. SDVOSB pool × relevance + state obtainable × 0.75 discount → SAM $8–15B.
  8. Model ISS contracts SBIR → OTA → Phase III → STRATFI → SOM scenarios.

curl -s https://secureassure.app/api/company/market-sizing | jq .rollup

Version loaded from API when available. Integrated Services and Solutions LLC · CAGE 9VKK3 · secureassure.app

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